GOVT 395: Politics of Weapons Proliferation

Dr. Nathan Busch

243 Ratcliffe Hall

Office Hours: T, W, Th, 10:00-12:00, and by appointment.

Phone: 594-8498

Course Description:

According to the 2002 National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction, the gravest danger facing the United States “lies at the crossroads of radicalism and technology. Our enemies have openly declared that they are seeking weapons of mass destruction, and evidence indicates that they are doing so with determination.” This course examines the threats posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to aspiring states and terrorist groups and the strategies that the United States and the international community have employed to prevent the spread of these weapons. Key topics that we will examine include the technologies necessary for these weapons, the relevant treaties and international agreements that attempt to prevent WMD proliferation, and the primary countries and terrorist groups that are attempting to acquire these weapons.

Required Texts:

· Joseph Cirincione, Jon Wolfsthal, Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Edition (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for Internat’l Peace, 2005)

· Nathan E. Busch, No End in Sight: The Continuing Menace of Nuclear Proliferation (Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky, 2004)

· Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York: W.W. Norton, 2002).

***In addition to the texts, students are required to read the New York Times international section.

Note on the readings: The majority of the readings for this class are available on the Internet. You will therefore need to have access to the Internet for this class. Many of the documents on the reading list require that your computer have the free Adobe Acrobat reader installed, which you can download at: http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html. In addition, some of the readings are on online reserve at the CNU library. For directions on how to access online reserves, go to http://faculty.users.cnu.edu/nbusch/Online_reserve.htm

Also, I may modify this syllabus from time to time to reflect changing events. Be sure to use the online syllabus as your primary syllabus. The website is at the bottom of this page.

Course Requirements:

Witty and Insightful Classroom Participation, 7%

Unannounced quizzes, 8%

Midterm, 20%

Short paper (3-5 pp), 15%

Long Paper (8-10 pp), 20%

Final exam, 30%

There will be a midterm exam, a short essay of 3-5 pages, a longer essay of 8-10 pages, and final exam in this class. In addition to these major assignments, I will give at least five unannounced quizzes. In the event of a “borderline” grade I will give the “benefit of the doubt” to those who attend class regularly and are prepared. Students are expected to do the readings prior to the class in which they are discussed. All work in this class will be cumulative. You must complete all major assignments to pass this course.

Academic Advising Center: Students who believe that they may need special or additional accommodations in this class are encouraged to contact the Academic Advising Center as soon as possible to ensure that such accommodations are implemented in a timely fashion. I also invite you to see me at any time so that I can provide assistance with the course. I am available during office hours and by appointment. Please do not hesitate to come by. I may also notify the Academic Advising Center if you seem to be having problems with this course. The Academic Advising Center is located in the Administration Building, Room 125. (757) 594-8763 (advise@cnu.edu)

Class Outline:

Part I: Introduction and General Assessments

Week 1: Identifying the Threats

U.S. National Security Council, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, September 2002), foreword and 1-31; http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.pdf
White House, National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction, December 2002, pp. 1-6; http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/nspd-wmd.pdf.
Deadly Arsenals, Chapters 1, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/DeadlyII.Ch01.FINAL.pdf

Weeks 2-3: Historical Background and Nonproliferation Regimes

Deadly Arsenals, chapter 3
Busch, appendix 1
“Basic Effects of Nuclear Weapons,” http://www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/index.shtml
“The Manhattan Project (and Before),” Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/nuke/hew/Usa/Med/Med.html.
Theodore Hirsch, “The IAEA Additional Protocol: What It Is and Why It Matters,” Nonproliferation Review, http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol11/113/113hirsch.pdf
Michael Beck and Seema Gahlaut, "Creating a New Multilateral Export Control Regime," Arms Control Today, April 2003, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_04/beckgahlaut_apr03.asp

Part II: Nuclear Proliferation

Conventional wisdom tells us that the proliferation of nuclear weapons is bad for both the United States and the world. But is this so clearly the case? A number of scholars have argued that nuclear proliferation might actually decrease the likelihood and scale of international conflicts. Many others disagree. Who is right? What are the implications for international security?

Weeks 4-5: Is Nuclear Proliferation Good or Bad?

Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York: W.W. Norton, 2002), chapters 1,2,4,5.
Busch, No End in Sight, Chapters 1,7

Recommended:

Jeffrey Knopf, "Recasting the Proliferation Optimism-Pessimism Debate," Security Studies 12, no. 1 (autumn 2003). (Online Reserve)
Peter D. Feaver, “Neooptimists and Nuclear Proliferation’s Enduring Problems,” Security Studies, vol. 6, no. 4 (Summer 1997). (Online reserve)
David Karl, "Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers," in International Security winter 1996/97. Link to Article.

Week 6: The Soviet Collapse and “Loose Nukes”

· Busch, Chapter 3

· Deadly Arsenals, Chapter 6

· Kenneth N. Luongo and William E. Hoehn III, “Reform and Expansion of Cooperative Threat Reduction,” Arms Control Today, June 2003, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_06/luongohoehn_june03.asp

Recommended:

Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, Securing the Bomb 2005: The New Global Imperatives (Washington, D.C.: Harvard University and Nuclear Threat Initiative), May 2005. http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/thebomb2005.pdf

Week 7: South Asia

Deadly Arsenals, chapters 11-12.
Busch, chapter 5
Sumit Ganguly, “Giving India a Pass,” Foreign Affairs, August 17, 2005, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050817faupdate84577/sumit-ganguly/giving-india-a-pass.html
David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, “Unraveling the A.Q. Khan and Future Proliferation Networks,” Washington Quarterly, Spring 2005, http://www.twq.com/05spring/docs/05spring_albright.pdf

Recommended:

Mario Carranza, “An Impossible Game: Stable Nuclear Deterrence after the Indian and Pakistani Tests,” Nonproliferation Review, vol. 6 (Spring–Summer 1999), pp. 11–24 http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol06/63/carran63.pdf.
Devin Hagerty, “Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: The 1990 Indo-Pakistani Crisis,” International Security, vol. 20, no. 3 (Winter 1995/96), pp. 79-114. Link to Article.
Samina Ahmed, Countering Nuclear Risks in South Asia, Council for a Livable World, Education Fund Report (Washington, DC: Council for a Livable World, December 2001, http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/pdf3.pdf.

***Midterm Exam, October 5

Week 8:

October 10: Fall Break, no class.

October 12: South Asia continued.

***Short Papers Due, October 12

Week 9: North Korea

Deadly Arsenals, chapter 14.
Busch, chapter 6, pp. 224-228, 246-264.
David Albright, “North Korea’s Current and Future Plutonium and Nuclear Weapon Stocks,” ISIS Issue Brief, January 15, 2003, http://www.isis-online.org/publications/dprk/currentandfutureweaponsstocks.html.
Phillip C. Saunders, “Military Options for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Program,” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, January 27, 2003, http://www.cns.miis.edu/research/korea/dprkmil.htm.
Edward Cody, "North Korea Nuclear Talks Adjourn Without Agreement," Washington Post, August 7, 2005, p. A14, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/06/AR2005080601034.htm

Recommended:

Michael Sheridan, "Chairman Kim’s Dissolving Kingdom," London Sunday Times, January 30, 2005, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1462207,00.html

Week 10: Iran

Busch, chapter 6, pp. 264-275
Deadly Arsenals, chapter 15
Kenneth Pollack and Ray Takeyh, "Taking on Tehran," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2005, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050301faessay84204/kenneth-pollack-ray-takeyh/taking-on-tehran.html
"Multiple Images Show Camouflaging of the Tunnel Entrance to the Underground Facilities at Natanz," May 2, 2005, http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/rampcomparison.html.
Wade Boese, "Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Meeting Sputters," Arms Control Today, July/August 2005, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_07-08/NPT.asp
"Iran's Nuclear Fuel Cycle: A Pattern of Peaceful Intent?," U.S. State Department briefing, November 2004, http://abcnews.go.com/images/International/iran_nuclear_report.pdf.

Recommended:

“Iran Proposal to the EU Falls Far Short of an Acceptable Agreement,” Institute for Science and International Security, May 3, 2005, http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/iranoffer.html
“Iran Failed to Comply with Nuclear NPT, IAEA Reports,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2003, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_07-08/iaea_julaug03.asp

Part IV: Chemical, Biological, and Missile Proliferation

Week 11: CBW Proliferation

Deadly Arsenals, chapter 4, appendix B &C
Jonathan B. Tucker, The BWC New Process: A Preliminary Assessment, Nonproliferation Review 11, No. 1 (Spring 2004), http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol11/111/111tucker.pdf
Kenneth D. Ward, "The BWC Protocol: Mandate for Failure," Nonproliferation Review 11, No. 2 (Summer 2004), http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol11/112/112ward.pdf
Gregory Koblentz, "Pathogens as Weapons: The International Security Implications of Biological Warfare," International Security, Vol. 28, No. 3 (Winter 2003/04), http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/Koblentz.pdf

Recommended:

Central Intelligence Agency, Terrorist CBRN: Materials and Effects, May 2003, http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/terrorist_cbrn/CBRN_threat.pdf.
Amy Sands, “Deconstructing the Chem-Bio Threat,” Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, March 19, 2002; available from http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/asands.htm.
Kenneth Alibek, Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, December 5, 2001; available from http://www.fas.org/bwc/news/testimony/CT2001Dec05Alibek.htm.
Jonathan B. Tucker, “Preventing the Misuse of Pathogens: The Need for Global Biosecurity Standards,” Arms Control Today, June 2003, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_06/Tucker.asp.

Week 12: Interdiction and Defense

Proliferation Security Initiative

"The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)," Bureau of Nonproliferation, Washington, DC, May 26, 2005, http://www.state.gov/t/np/rls/other/46858.htm
Andrew C. Winner, "The Proliferation Security Initiative: The New Face of Interdiction," Washington Quarterly, Spring 2005, http://www.twq.com/05spring/docs/05spring_winner.pdf

Missile Defense

Deadly Arsenals, Chapter 5
James Lindsay and Michael O’Hanlon, “Missile Defense: Concepts and Systems,” in Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2001), 29-49. Online Reserve.
Kerry M. Kartchner, “Implementing Missile Defense,” in Nuclear Transformation: The New U.S. Nuclear Doctrine. Online reserve.

V. WMD Terrorism

Week 13: Terrorist Motivations, Capabilities, and WMD

Walter Laqueur, “Post-Modern Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 5 (September-October 1996), http://www.fas.org/irp/news/1996/pomo-terror.htm.
David Albright, Kathryn Beuhler and Holly Higgins, “Bin Laden and the Bomb,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58, no. 1 (January/February 2002), pp. 23-24, http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=jf02albright_027
Gary Ackerman & Laura Snyder, “Would They If They Could?,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists May/June 2002, http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2002/mj02/mj02ackerman.html.
Joseph F. Pilat, “The New Terrorism and NBC Weapons,” in Hype or Reality?: The "New Terrorism" and Mass Casualty Attacks. Online Reserve.

Recommended:

Rocco Casagrande, “Biological Terrorism Targeted at Agriculture: The Threat to US National Security,” Nonproliferation Review 7, no. 3 (Fall-Winter 2000), http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol07/73/73casa.pdf.

Week 14: Cases: The Rajneeshees, Aum Shinrikyo, and Al Qaeda

· Judith Miller, Stephen Engelberg, and William Broad, “The Attack,” in Germs: Biological Weapons and America’s Secret War (New York: Touchstone, 2002). Online Reserve.

· Chronology of Aum Shinrikyo’s CBW activities, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, March 2001, http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/aum_chrn.html.

· Milton Leitenberg, “The Experience of the Japanese Aum Shinrikyo Group and Biological Agents,” in Hype or Reality, pp. 159-172. Online reserve.

· David Albright & Holly Higgins, “A Bomb for the Ummah,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 2 (March/April 2003), pp. 49-55, http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/ma03/ma03albright.html

· Judith Miller, "Tapes reveal al-Qaeda chemical experiments on animals," New York Times, August 20 2002, http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/08/19/1029114079591.html

Recommended:

Miller et al., “The Cult,” in Germs: Biological Weapons and America’s Secret War. Online Reserve.
Robert Jay Lifton, Destroying the World To Save It: Aum Shinrikyo, Apocalyptic Violence, and the New Global Terrorism (New York: Henry Holt, 2000),
David E. Kaplan and Andrew Marshall, The Cult at the End of the World: The Terrifying Story of the Aum Doomsday Cult, from the Subways of Tokyo to the Nuclear Arsenals of Russia (New York: Crown, 1996).

Week 15. Disarmament (December 3-5)

Prospects of Abolition of Weapons of Mass Destruction, in Jozef Goldblat, Arms Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements (Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, 2002), pp. 125-134, 293-297. Online reserve.

Jack Mendelsohn, “NATO's Nuclear Weapons: The Rationale for ‘No First Use’”, Arms Control Today July/August 1999, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/1999_07-08/jmja99.asp

***Long Essay Due: Last Day of Class.

***Final Exam: December 5, 8:00 PM